State of The Global Economy March 11 2024

March 11, 2024


The State of The Global Economy Address

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

By Patrick T Bulger   


Risk is currently viewed as high.


Institute for Supply Management

(ISM) Manufacturing Index at 47.8 is in contraction.


Not Strong.

See my posts, LinkedIn, X.


Rising both here and Canada.

Canada significant.


Sentiment down.

Poor Retail, Nov Dec revised down.

Delinquencies up.

Savings rate down.

Banks here and globally

New York, Japan, Germany, issues due to Our Commercial Real Estate.

Collateral issues not yet fully recognized.

Powell quoted last week, more to come.

Need for capital

Lease ReFi,

Corp Junk Refi (Think Zombie Co meets much higher refi rates).


Appear weak beyond seasonality.


China, Euro area, Japan showing outright recessionary potential.

Bank issues are not limited to the U.S.


The view is, broad risk is high on negative divergence.

Markets can peak differently from global economic fundamentals. 

Timing/Guessing is not high end capital management.



Because, quality, "Portfolio First" decision making starts with Knowing Your Data.


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The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.

Macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent. 

Find out how portfolios are being positioned and why.


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