Newsletter July 14 2023

July 14, 2023                                                                                                                           

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

By Patrick T Bulger                                

Are We Cheering at Craps?

Are we distracted by what's usually the loudest table in the casino as it burns around us?

Tangible View:  July Earning Season's Uneasy Feeling.  Direction still appears to be down. Mind The Gap.

New orders are new orders and when they appear to be contracting, you eventually should report it.

Bankruptcies should be followed.

Broad Forward looks are expected to lean downward.

Mysterious "Expectations", Smoky, "Adjustments" and Mirror like "buybacks" may be in abundance.

Banks appeared to be: not so healthy since the first half of 2021, and adding balance sheet issues, mortgage, real estate, treasury spikes, credit cards, car loans, thin skin on deposit running, along with China M&A fees being called back to HK and feeling is that we may see a reasonably bad set of data out of the sector.

I'm not sure I'd call that, "Baked In", nor reason for Euphoric Behavior.

Does Tech report another set of wavering ad revenue? 

The waters seem to be rising, taking sector by sector. The question is, where's the tipping point?

  • Jobs, Inflation, Fed: Are they really as presented by the, "They Said" crowd?  
  • Is, "They Said", any sign of truth or fact?

These are a few good questions that are likely to show themselves in time.  Maybe later than most will benefit from.

Will it be historic lessons learned, to not be repeated, or will we just let the record repeat itself?   

Stay Tuned.

Note: Small data lifts in volatile streams are not trends until they stand the test of time and size of move.

The Actual Numbers can tell a story,

What you don't see can be bad.  What the numbers say can be opportunistic. 

Be Early, Be Prepared, If You Care.

The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.

Macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent. 

Find out how portfolios are being positioned and why.

Business Leaders and Decision Makers,

Reach out for a discussion that could be valuable to your view and process.

Reach out on LinkedIn