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June 12, 2023

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

by Patrick T Bulger

Tangible View:  Is it the Bear-Lehman Gap?

Fed, pending to see if strong dollar drive wins out.  Will it be, Break Things, Pause, Cut/Rescue/Cliff Fall?

China Reopen, as mentioned in prior writings, currently not really.

Big Picture, of Macro Gravity pulling down - appears - Negative.

Credit freeze, The non-bank money on the sidelines is viewed as smart money and that usually doesn't come in at interim highs.  It is usually opportunistically deployed at the blood in the streets moments. Banks - Sheet, quality, fearful bankers.  Not credit friendly.

Deepest Inversions in decades.

Macro econ, this feels much more like the Bear-Lehman gap than anything else, but perhaps numerically worse.  Global demand is beginning to show its weakness.  Is it deflation incoming vs. healthy disinflation?

Indicators are closing in on where they broke things last fall.  Not there yet, but waiting till you're falling off a cliff, seems like too late to begin preparing to avoid falling off a cliff.

Wayne Gretzky was famous, "The Great One", for being early to the puck...But, why take lessons from a One in Millions, Greatest of All Time!  It's a 1 and 99 world.  Interestingly his number was 99!

Parts of the Real Estate Market not named new homes, are not all healthy and some are turning over.  Refi has lost it's luster, think, no more home as atm, liquidity negative.

Despite the hype, Broad Market Stock Measures are trading around 2 year ago levels,

Yes, all the hype, 2 years ago levels...I'll take truth over hype for 100 Alex...

Services can stay elevated, spreads can be bought and headline numbers can be revised. 

The Actual Numbers can tell a story,


What you don't see can be bad, what the numbers say can be opportunistic.

Be Early, Be Prepared, If You Care,


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The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.

The positioning remains defensive as economic trends are viewed as down, while volatility is expected to rise.

Hence, remaining macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent.

Speculation seems to be developing a carnival sound to it.

Find out how portfolios are being positioned for the current forward look and why


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