Newsletter Nov 13 2023, Duck Watch, Live Mic

November 13, 2023,                                                                                                 

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

By Patrick T Bulger   

Duck Watch, and Live Mic "Moments"

A Special "F"inancially SYSTEMIC Addition

As a rare occurrence, today you'll notice a page 2. Only as I feel it's necessary and beneficial.  These are unique times.

First and Foremost, Positioning Does Exist for what is written below.

My conditional view of re-pricing, banking & systemic collateral pressure, appears to be continuing.  This is not my first mention of "Keys being handed in".   

Like liquid on sand, a price erosion can have momentum.

                Slowly at first, quickening with time.

                When someone sells out of fear/need, a Damage to Price spill over should be considered.

                I've yet to see a time where, no-one needed liquidity or "forced to sell", went extinct.                                           

Turning in more keys, WeWork and others are conjuring the aroma of Toxic Assets...

The "Fully Loaned" crowd could see bank calls if a "Call Buffer" is breached.

Liquidity Urgency, for many broad reasons, is real.

Not selling existing, locked at lower rates, is not everyone on the block. A few with flu can be contagious.                      "Floating Rate" necessity to refi, and there are some, floating rate loans as MORTGAGES, Home Equity                  Lines Of Credit, or similar...think corporate debt.

This view sees potential erosion continuing to become a rising burden to the Financial System.  I see a rising potential for Job Market Erosion to become undeniable where many currently ignore, also there is pressure potential in Collateral, Bundled Products, Ratings Adjustments, Asset Backed (How's Your Asset?) and Derivatives, just to name a few...

From this view, these look, walk and sound like, Financially Systemic Issue Ducks.  So, if someone starts reporting on Bananas, pay attention.

So while the 99 get distracted by the shiny objects of Fed Dots, Fed Saids, Services, and Granular Inflation Labeled Grains of Sand in Hypothetical Smoky Converse and echoes of different this time:

I'll continue to tune into what I feel is FAR more real to your portfolio and

directly effects your quality of Life, Goal Attainment, and Efficiency of Positioning.

Besides, What other extreme would make a fed chairman be on edge enough to drop a live mic "f" bomb at the drop of a hat?

I take a view, based on the hard work of deeply refined data.

Transform & simplify your investment plan's potential with an exceptionally efficient process,

as inefficiencies could be costly.

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The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.  Macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent.  Find out how portfolios are being positioned and why.


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Pinpoint # 20231102386 11/13/2023