State of The Global Economy March 11 2024
March 11, 2024
The State of The Global Economy Address
A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective
By Patrick T Bulger
Risk is currently viewed as high.
Institute for Supply Management
(ISM) Manufacturing Index at 47.8 is in contraction.
Jobs
Not Strong.
See my posts, LinkedIn, X.
Bankruptcies
Rising both here and Canada.
Canada significant.
Consumer
Sentiment down.
Poor Retail, Nov Dec revised down.
Delinquencies up.
Savings rate down.
Banks here and globally
New York, Japan, Germany, issues due to Our Commercial Real Estate.
Collateral issues not yet fully recognized.
Powell quoted last week, more to come.
Need for capital
Lease ReFi,
Corp Junk Refi (Think Zombie Co meets much higher refi rates).
Transports
Appear weak beyond seasonality.
Global
China, Euro area, Japan showing outright recessionary potential.
Bank issues are not limited to the U.S.
Technical
The view is, broad risk is high on negative divergence.
Markets can peak differently from global economic fundamentals.
Timing/Guessing is not high end capital management.
Why?
Because, quality, "Portfolio First" decision making starts with Knowing Your Data.
Boutique Investment Advisory, for You, the scaled leader.
You and your portfolio deserve this.
Save Time. Position Quality. I do this work for you.
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The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.
Macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent.
Find out how portfolios are being positioned and why.
Visit me on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/patricktbulger/
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