Newsletter June 15 2023
June 15, 2023
A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective
by Patrick T Bulger
The Fed Has Paused
Tangible View: Missed Opportunity for strong dollar? What did they see that made it unanimous? Still Bad.
Initial thought is an inconsequential .25 with a next year lag, would have been enough for a strong dollar case.
Is the ice really that thin?
Dollar so far, has lost and we are with a pause and hawkish talk. Talk is cheap.
Put me in the misstep camp.
This does not appear to go with inflate your way out of it, in high debt environment.
We appear to be at or near a potential point of break or reversal.
The next thought is, what did they see? Unanimous?
Credit freeze? Bankers with declining collateral, deposits, credit quality usually are not happy to lend?
Turn in of Keys in the REs (Real Estates)?
On top of unwell sheet?
Deepest Inversions in decades?
Or is it, Quantitative Tightening about to shift below the bank crisis low?
Or is it, increased issuance and a reflation of the Treasury General Account?
Euro going negative, China worrying, Job cuts, Sentiment, New Orders, Transports?
Despite the hype, Broad Market Stock Measures are trading around 2 year ago levels,
Yes, all the hype, 2 years ago levels...I'll take truth over hype for 100 Alex...
The Actual Numbers can tell a story,
What you don't see can be bad, what the numbers say can be opportunistic.
Be Early, Be Prepared, If You Care.
Reach out on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/patricktbulger/
The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.
The positioning remains defensive as economic trends are viewed as down, while volatility is expected to rise.
Hence, remaining macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent.
Speculation seems to be developing a carnival sound to it.
Find out how portfolios are being positioned for the forward look and why.
500 East Broward Boulevard, Suite 1710; Fort Lauderdale, FL 33394
Direct: 954 478 0311 Fax: 954 256 8270 Email: PBulger@summitfn.com