Know Your Data Series,
Your 2025 Economic Data Quick Take:
A Distilled Perspective
By Patrick T Bulger
The Tariff Narrative,
is about 8 years old...
We've already played this, yet we have media focus like this is something new.
OMG, N.o.t.
The strong opinion here is,
tariffs didn't cause the inflation bubble,
the 6 to 8 Trillion borrowed money give-away did. Hence, the Q3 2020 to Q4 2021 surge.
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The new administration's financial elements,
are only weeks or less in new positions.
We are in a high noise zone where many will imply that they know, when they do not.
We'll move with Data as your guide.
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This week's Initial Unemployment Claims,
Unadjusted, year on year,
is up roughly 10% from last year.
There's a case to be made for: Significant Increase.
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Correlations remain abnormal and on watch.
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From the
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA RESEARCH DEPARTMENT:
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for February vs. January, Reported:
A decline in General Business Activity
A decline in New Orders
A decline in shipments
A decline in unfilled orders
A decline in inventories
An increase in prices paid/input costs
A small increase in prices received
A decline in number of employees
A decline in average workweek
Capital Expenditures were not reported.
This report has the optics of unhealthy.
It also rhymes with the Federal Reserve Board of New York report that was released within the last week.
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The Conference Board
United States Leading Index, Month on Month,
Positive only 3 times since May of 2022.
Came in at -0.3% for the month of January.
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Perspective and homework...
For Those Who Care:
1) Check your favorite Index Valuation Measure.
How's that looking?
2) What's your inflation adjusted return,
from the Q4 peak in 2021 to now,
on Your Favorite Broad Index?
3) Click “Show All” at the bottom of the blog main page,
Go to the Banks, Unrealized (Losses) and You post. Perspective, Period.
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So, when you hear someone touting "Exceptionalism", ask if that's bad or good and why.
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Submit your questions via the "get started" button at the top of this page.
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Thanks always for reading,
PTB