ADP, the paycheck people & The Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Job Cuts Report,

Caution, Items in The Headlines May be Worse than the Initially Appear.

Commentary From the Distilled Perspective by Patrick T Bulger Analytics, 10/02/2025

• The ADP Report was an outright negative number for jobs.

• The Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Job Cuts Report:
• Contained some of the worst data since 2009.

1. Oct 02 September Job Cuts Fall 37% From August
However, Come back to see the big picture and they note:
2. YTD Total Highest Since 2020,
3. Lowest YTD Hiring Since 2009
4. Hiring Plans Weakest since 2009.

Less people working, potential for less economic activity,
Reinforced by multiple other streams of data from other sources,
Leads to our view of eroding underlying data & overvalued auction numbers.

• Our summary is High Risk to your portfolio, we share insights on positioning.

For the latest on what we see and how it we’re adjusting for it,
Click the “ask” button to book a call or submit a question.

• You and Your Money Matter,
High level successful people are susceptible to noise, group think and momentum…
You wisely made the money, now, shut the door, and make a wise phone call because you matter,

Layers of professional insight can be beneficial in advance of a proof-by-loss event. Not After.

We believe that data and risk discovery can add context, conviction & value to your views.

We manage capital for busy, emotionally matured,
Decision-makers who understand the importance of quality and data.
Critically thinking your math of loss is imperative.

• To learn more about The data-driven approach to risk, your perspective & plan,
Click the “ask” button to start a conversation about Data, Risk & Your Capital.

• Finally, the picture, yes, we spilled the beans a long time ago on jobs numbers.
Now it has come to reality. (Currently in our post history for your viewing)
Data and insight serving high quality portfolios and busy decision makers.
Stay Tuned,

PTB

...