The Friday “War” Wrap, Yes, You Read That Correctly

Commentary from The Distilled Perspective of
Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics

War and Recession? Coincidence or Playbook?

Is there a similarity, is it a means of distraction or protocol?

Let's look at the last 4 recessions:

• 1990,
  Saw the Savings & Loan Crisis, then Gulf War I.0,
• 2000,
  As macro data was showing signs of stress,
  There were major conflicts globally from
  Ethiopia to Congo to Chechnya to India and Pakistan...
  Then the "Global War on Terror", which began in the recession of 2001.
• 2007,
  As macro deterioration of data was looking evident and
  Financial stress in the money markets,
  We encountered the "Surge", in Iraq and also Afghanistan that lasted into 2008.
• 2020,
  Once again in our data work we noted macro-economic peaks in 2018 that declined into 2020, ending in the Bazooka of capital give away in the form of pandemic relief.
  Perhaps a break from War, to a globally synchronized crisis.
• Today,
  One of the largest United States build ups of military muster in decades is currently underway in the Middle East: Navy, Marines & Airforce.
• Nuclear talks with Iran have not simplified and appear to be breaking down.

This Situation is on watch.
Parabolic charts seem to be plentiful.
There seems to be a unusually high level of complacency coupled with exuberance.

In my career which began in 1997,
I've never experienced a larger disparity between the current economics and what I would call, overvaluation.

• The Takeaway,
  This is a very important time to fully revisit your portfolio positioning and exposure to risk.
  I refer to this area as A Pre-Proof-by-Loss event.
  Start your conversation, Click Below:
• Click Here

Thanks for reading,

PTB

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