The Friday Investment Data Wrap: 08/29/2025
Why Weak Economic Numbers Are a Concern for Your Portfolio
A Distilled Perspective Commentary from Patrick T Bulger Analytics
Living Beyond the Herd means understanding the data others ignore.
Buckle up for a deeper dive than the click hype that may have crossed your path:
• Keeping it simple,
The numbers out of Chicago and University of Michigan are deeply concerning.
They gives the appearance that this is no longer a drill. On Watch.
• Key Observations:
1) The KC Fed Manufacturing Survey came in with numbers reflective of weakness and implied margin squeeze.
2) Chicago PMI August, drops to 41.5 vs. last month’s 47.1
This places the number among some of the lowest over the last 50 years...
3) University of Michigan Consumer numbers continue to erode and
are also near the bottom readings over the last 50 years.
We see this picture in many places as in line with Jobs, sentiment, corporate profits, and we see it as predating the current tariff situation.
===Data Blog of the Quarter,
• Visit the link below to the FDIC post for a simultaneous view of financially significant data.
Data Matters, Banks Balance Sheets…note, 2008 vs. current report.
The real story is found in the critical context.
This blog was posted in the last week.
Source, FDIC
Bank Balance Sheet Insight, Click Here
=== The Blog of the Week,
• Perhaps the single best learning points in GDP Data:
This is a point that you must comprehend:
The example shows 2001, a recessionary year,
o How GDP was first reported,
o Then how it ended up.
Brought to us by:
Source:
Chief Economist Anna Wong, Bloomberg, X
What you must know about GDP, Click Here
• The Global Glance:
Canada comes in with numbers implying weakness.
Japan comes in with numbers implying weakness.
Korea Industrial Production peaked in 2021 and seems to rhyme with the other global data as confirming weakness...
China banking and finance are still an issue.
• Key Takeaway for your portfolio & business:
These numbers are viewed a weak economy entering an area where Black Swan pressures are a higher potential reality than normal.
Think cycle. Think if I have invested capital that I care about, I should call in.
After a Proof-By-Loss event is not the time to “Learn”…
• Understanding this multi-dimensional data set is imperative.
The economic picture plays a giant roll in your outcomes.
I work with busy decision makers
Who don't have time, yet need quality.
When you realize that you may have less than experts providing your information.
I bring exceptional data, insight & experience to you.
• What You Can Do:
I continuously immerse in the data so you don't have to.
I manage the portfolio so you don't have to.
===
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Great weekend to All!
The views stated in this blog are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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