A Hormuz Update: Macro Red Flags, Highlights & Ship Passing Numbers

From The Distilled Perspective of Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics 

The Strait of Hormuz daily normal ship passing numbers, 
•    Were formerly in the 100 level per day

•    Hormuz Update, As of Monday 09/22, AM U.S. EST.
Reported ship counts are as follows:

Monday, 09/14, reported passings: 8
Tuesday, 09/15, reported passings: 9
Wednesday, 09/16, reported passings: 15
Thursday, 09/17, reported passings: 6
Friday, 09/18, reported passings: Not Available
Saturday, 09/19, reported passings: Not Available
Sunday, 09/20, reported passings: 14
Monday, 09/21, reported passings: 4

(Source: Windward) These numbers include Dark Passings 

•    Last Week’s Supply Chain Noteworthy Events (Because Supply Matters):
The damage to the Saudi East/West Pipeline,
I’ll take the Saudi evaluation that it will take weeks to repair,
Unconfirmed reports of the Houthis laying mines in the al Bab-Mandeb,
Shipping & Supply Chain remains constrained,
Although we’ll feel less impact on supply, pricing is global,
Account for infrastructure damage in Russia/Ukraine,
It goes well beyond oil.

• Bluster: Caution on Announced Blusters of, World Peace, Mission Accomplished, Deals Any Day Now or Agreements to buy agriculture…
• Know your context as all are increasing in possibility.
  It appears that desperation fosters fibs, like recent Treasury Announcements are Impactful…LOL, See my recent posts on that math, please.

•    Global Macro View, I see the following:
Credit & Funding appear to be having issues, 
Massive borrowing meeting profit necessity seems to be not matching.
If the money is borrowed, is it really profitable growth or an illusion of growth?
Real Estate data appears to be weak.
Production data appears as weak.
Sentiment data appears as weak.
Real Consumer data appears as weak.
Remember, You likely have a portfolio exposed to risk.
Not everyone is managing your risk.  Call in for a risk discussion if your capital matters to you.

Your first step is simple. Click the "Ask" button to start a conversaion about risk to your portfolio.

Thanks for your time.
Best, 
PTB

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