Opening Week to The New Year 2025

An Economic Quick Take from a Distilled Perspective

by Patrick T Bulger

As most return to their respective desks from an advantageous year end calendar,
Data should begin to shape the year ahead.

We enter the week with:

Currencies in upper territory where Wrecking Balls Can Break Things.
Global Systemic Black Swan warning flag is currently flying.

Treasury debt issuance is expected to begin the week with over 350 Billion of issuance.
It will be interesting to see how that is received and give a feel for where demand is.
We are on rate watch.

Noise from the pipes of global financial system:
Large amount of dollar swaps taken by the European Central Bank, Why?
Large drop in reserve balances with the fed.

Business Data still shows input costs up and pricing power weak,
This is viewed as a margin squeeze,
That’s prior to smoky adjustments, buybacks, and consensus diversions.

Jobs data has remained weak with large negative revisions.

I do not expect a stellar brick and mortar set of holiday data.
Last year it took into March before that came out to light.

That’s the brief for now.

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PTB