Why & How do Jobs tie into "K-Shape", Borrowing, Sentiment, Retail & Consumer Health?

From The Distilled Perspective of Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics

A note of context: The Current Setting, 

It's November, 
There should have been a Jobs surge going into the holiday season. 
(They do not wait till Black Friday to hire people, they do it in advance to train them).

Jobs as an insight to Consumer Health:
Working consumers tend to spend, unless their sentiment (feeling) is near an all-time low, which it currently is & from this view, Iran didn't cause this, it well predates conflict.

So, entering the holiday season, which is this report, we usually see a seasonal bump in hiring extra staff for the end of year shopping season...Houston, “We may have a consumer/economy problem”

If this is the surge, then I take it as, OMG weak numbers.

For Perspective:
Looking back to a normal economy, 
A healthy jobs month was comfortably in the 200k + range of nonfarm payroll increases.
And,
A holiday surge was considerably better, much closer to the 300k range.

Key Notes & Points of View:
•    Today’s October Jobs print was in the 165k range
•    Consumer Sentiment remains at deeply depressed levels
•    Note, GDP can be a current diversion/distortion, 
•    See my post on the 2001 GDP of +2 revised down to -1, three years after original release.
•    I see GDP & other data as frequently discussed yet not dependable for current use.
•    GDP like the “K” shaped economy topic, there’s always been a “K”, 
•    Despite Ks existence, we’ve still had recessions.
•    We appear to be massively borrowing & calling it profit & prosperity…
•    When you borrow your way to spending, is it really earnings?
•    Stop the borrowing and see the reality reveal itself.
•    With that methodology, where do you see “Fair Value”?
•    These are all separate from globally systemic issues in credit, leverage, liquidity, Valuations & other areas.

Conclusion:
If 165k is the holiday jobs surge, then we may be in for disappointing holiday consumer numbers.

From this view, major retailers appear to be in a margin squeeze without enough sales volume to achieve pricing power...I simply don't see it happening.

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Thx, 
PTB

No, I do not think, "She's Unsinkable"...

October Jobs Report 165k Non-Farm Payrolls, 
(Source: BLS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

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