I See Hormuz & "Deal" Inaccuracies
Bluster Busting Commentary for You

From The Distilled Perspective, of Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics

• We’ve all heard the bluster of:
  1)     Hormuz is open and flowing.
  2)     Peace deal signed. Let’s address this one right here:
  There’s no Peace Deal Signed, It’s an MOU,
  Memorandum of Understanding, which in short is,
  A list of items to negotiate. NOT A PEACE DEAL.
  3)     Now, with an MOU, they negotiate for 60 days on a list of conditions that seems non-agreeable.

•     However,

Your Hormuz Mechanical Reality:
I am looking at the Source: Windward.com Hormuz traffic data for today, June 18 with data as of the 17th.

There has been a slight improvement, but
•     No Return to Normal.

**13 inbound & 13 outbound transits noted.**
Normal total was near 100 using conservative observations.

•     So, What does that mean for you?

The biggest issue from this view, is the shortage of oil and distillates.
Most of the reported traffic was Cargo, not Energy. This leads to,
My view that Energy Crisis Potential remains as High.

The energy issue has a large part regarding storage levels at global refineries.
Not to be confused with strategic reserves.

When supply becomes scarce, the refinery can be forced into shut-down.
They don’t idle like a parked car. They’re either refining or shutting.
Shutting down a refinery is a slow process with a slow process to reopen it.

The result of a potential forced shut down is a shortage of distilled product. Think diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, just to name a few. Global Transports, Farms & Flights, can be negatively affected.
Supply Chains in a globally interconnected world can have degrees of effect.

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Thanks for your time.
Talk soon,
PTB

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