Hormuz Open? Your Deeper Understanding

Economic Commentary from The Distilled Perspective of
Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics

1) Traditional Strait of Hormuz traffic,
Under normal conditions,
Exists in the 100 ships range, with a (+or-) of about 10 or so.

2) April 9th reports vary in the low single digit crossings,
I see reports between 1 and 3 ships.
In my data, that translates to "Hormuz Not Open".

3) Iran has no incentive to open the strait.
It's starving the globe of a key energy source
of near 10 million barrels per day.

• No one here seems to be bracing for the global impact,

As this drags on, I expect the effects to be witnessed like a truck crashing through your living room... You'll wake up when it hits you.
You may not be in the living room on impact, but you’re likely to feel the affects.

• Iran knows
The rest of the globe knows,
I don't see this in the news as prominently as I feel it should be.

• In summary:
1) There has been an historical jump in energy inflation, and
2) A simultaneous disruption in supply chain that goes well beyond energy...
3) On top of that my data based measures conclude a globally weak economic picture.

• Two words: Thin Ice

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Thanks for your time.
Talk soon,
PTB

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