Special K? Chips & Retail Peek-a-Boo...All Over Again...
Sorting through the Data Mess

Is Your Portfolio Using Lagging, Potentially Deceptive Data?

Happy Holidays from the Distilled Perspective Commentary of Patrick T Bulger

I bring to you a few of the observations currently at play, for the good of your investment decision making.

• The Problem

Delayed Government Economic Data is in question.
The governmental shutdown delayed data that is being released,
It does not appear as good. Is the current data worse?

Lagging data can lead to inaccurate critical decision making with your capital.
It takes work, but we follow more than government headline data.
That's what we do for you & just one of our points of uniqueness.

• Our Solution & Our Unique Data Work

We are satisfied with the usable data in the system.
In the higher frequency, non-government generated data that we follow,
the economic situation appears to be eroding.

The data does appear to reinforce and confirm surrounding data.
This also takes seasonality into consideration.
=== === ===
• As we approach the Retail Data,
Holiday Season Finale,
For the Third Year in a row, we’ll say it again...

Watch for the media to cover the smaller, "On Line" numbers and
Ignore the much larger brick and mortar, potentially bad numbers.

We'll see who is honestly reporting, and who is accurately reporting.
We've witnessed truths emerge as late as March...That's a data lag and not portfolio worthy.
=== === ===
• K shaped economy,

is a distractionary narrative...Trying to be positioned as reason to not worry.

There are always wealthy spenders that are not largely impacted by economic swings.
There are always people under economic stress.

• Has there ever not been a wealth gap?

From the days of the Romans,
to the little rascals, to today,

• There’s always been an undeniable K.

So, to trying to talk about it as an economic indicator
is viewed here as a media distraction and economist flaw.

Note, working on solutions for a wealth gap is different from sorting through media noise trying to apply it to economic reasoning or rebuttal to weakness.
=== === ===
• ADP Job weakness (Now Weekly),
Is reporting negative numbers.
We've seen no indication of sizeable hiring for the holiday season.
This is in line with our surrounding data observations.
=== === ===
• The Chip Cat may have exited the bag.

Accounting practices are in question?
Mr. Burry has given an interesting perspective on that.

Profits seem to be rare.

Alternate chips are being made and have drawn interest.
Is it, smoke & fire?
Is it, a duck?
Is it, prolly nothin?

• We also see Volatility from the Swiss and Japan regions.
Unwind?

• Who or What will surprise next,

Shadow Banking, Zombie Companies, Financial Cockroaches...

• Call in for a discussion about cautious positioning for your serious capital.

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