Your Fed Quick Look

What you should know...
A commentary from
The Distilled Perspective of Patrick T Bulger Analytics & Capital Management

The Fed has 2 mandates: Jobs and Price Stability (which most interpret as Inflation).

Both have undergone massive distortions
in methodology, calculation and revision in recent years.

So anyone trying to apply granularity to this, perhaps, not so fast.
They’re paying attention to what now?
Data Distortion & Fed Chaos for 100, Alex.

What they tell you,
What’s actually happening, and
What they do…
Might just be 3 different things.
=== === ===

Keeping it simple,

If you are looking at the 2yr and thinking about the Fed,

Does the Fed try to control the rate or does the rate control the Fed?
(Thank You Bond King Gundlach)

The 2yr appears to be in an unalarming range that pre-dates the 2025 cuts.
A bit of Obvious there...but, based upon rate behavior,
this doesn't look like a cut is a done deal.

We'll see.
We don't gamble on toothless cuts or pauses.
We cover much more data than that.

We have a few sayings,

The Fed cuts into fear of trouble and
Fearful bankers tend not to lend.

Is 25 basis points going to:
kickstart hiring? Halt layoff announcements?
Part the clouds on inflation…we feel the answer is, NO.

For more on currently viewed risk conditions and your positioning,
reach out by hitting the "Ask" button.

Best,
PTB

#investmentRisk #Fed #Rates #institutional