Understanding The Job Reports, 101 & More

My View of Unreliable Data.

From The Distilled Perspective of Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics

•    Why do Jobs Matter?

Because people who work, tend to spend, in a very basic econ view, and
People who don't work tend not to spend.
Spending tends to drive "demand or lack of demand" for "goods"
(It goes well beyond this, we're keeping it simple).

•    What are the two important job reports?

The "Establishment Survey" & The "Household Survey".
They feature differing ways of Employment Measurement.

(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS, U.S. Census Bureau and Patrick T Bulger, Capital Management & Analytics) 

•    Note: See my chart from last week's Post from the "Household Survey".
See it Here:  Household Survey Chart & Post

•    What's going on now?

Last Friday's "Establishment" Jobs Report
showed -23,000 jobs for the month of July.  May and June were downwardly revised by a combined 103,000.

•    Note the revisions, highlighted in my June Post, followed by the July Report showing  
Back to back months of cumulative downward revisions.

•    See it here:July Establishment Survey Post

•    Conclusion, 

I see Jobs number getting worse, fast.  Multiple bad number in a row is beginning to look like a trend that matches Consumer Sentiment.

I take care of the complex parts for you.
You save time while you live Your Life, Your Way

It's time for a risk review.  It’s easy to hit the “Ask” Button to start a conversation.
•    Reach out before a possible Proof-by- loss event.

Thanks for reading,
PTB

...