Are investors running for safety? The bond market seems to think so.
A Distilled Perspective Commentary from Patrick T. Bulger Analytics, 08/22/2025
Debt appears to be showing a sizable flight to safety.
This tells a completely different story from the bullish equity narrative.
Key Takeaways for your portfolio:
The data didn’t change from the last post.
This is what exuberance, speculation & volatility look like.
What are they trying to tell us about the economy?" See the Risk Post,
A chart you should know.
https://www.patricktbulger.com/blog/it-all-about-risk
Debt appears to be calling out broad equity moves & The Fed.
Summary,
Erosion of underlying macro condition continues.
Key Conviction:
These views are supported by other reinforcing data as Job Weakness, Consumer Sentiment, Finance, Refinance, Debt and more.
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2. Seek Truth: We interpret data with abnormally focused intensity spanning decades.
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The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value.
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