2025 First Quarter Wrap Up, 
🎯 Keeping it simple:

Your Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective, 
By Patrick T Bulger 03/25/2025 pm 
🎯 Your Source for Answers, Guidance, Investment & Data

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So, 
We finished the election season with November Red Flags,
it appeared the data was changing.

Then it appears to have confirmed.

See:  
Winds of change, Blog and 
Don't mistake post-holiday restart with economic upturn.

Also there was the Tariff talk, potential order pull forward,
Where companies may have ordered in advance of need,
To avoid Tariff effects on pricing.

That's roughly similar to self-channel stuffing.  

These should have caused quite an economic, burst.

However, I didn't see it in the data.
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The Year on Year numbers did not reflect a seasonal increase of size, 
Yet underwhelmed keep coming to mind.

Manufacturing, Transports, and Retail appear weak, while jobs look shaky.
Energy costs seem generally elevated,
Shipping cost from China to West Coast US remains elevated,

Business reports seem to echo costs elevated, demand and pricing weak.
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We now seem to be in an abrupt measure of slowing,
The Atlanta Fed GDP Now Cast turned negative over recent weeks.

That, combined with some credit cycle dynamics have our internal numbers on-watch.

Remember, short term volatility in a rear view mirror is not investing.

Mr. Buffett began his historic posturing over a year ago.  I tend to be in agreement with his perspective. 
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3 Narrative Cautions:

-K shaped doesn't explain away the issues noted by major retailers,
-Inflation granularity has jumped the shark,
-Tariffs Hysteria, dusted off from 8 years ago, is just old.
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That's all before we dive into Debt, Issuance, and Liquidity.
More to come.

Reach Out for In-depth Economic Discussions and 
How They Relate to You.  

Thanks for tuning in,
PTB